The OECD Long-Term Baseline is a projection of some major economic variables beyond the short-term horizon of the OECD Economic Outlook. It covers all OECD economies, non-OECD G20 economies and selected key partners. The projection horizon is currently 2060. For the historical period and the short-run projection horizon, the series are consistent with those of the OECD Economic Outlook number 114. The definitions, sources and methods are also generally the same. For more details on the methodology, please see boxes and Annex in Guillemette, Y. and J. Château (2023), 'Long-Term Scenarios: Incorporating the Energy Transition', OECD Economic Policy Papers, No. 33, OECD Publishing, Paris, and references therein.
The baseline scenario is a projection conditional on a number of assumptions, notably that countries do not carry out institutional and policy reforms (see section 2 of the reference cited above). It is used as a reference point to illustrate the potential impact of structural reforms in alternative scenarios. The energy transition scenario is an alternative scenario with accelerated energy transition broadly consistent with net zero GHG emissions by 2050 (see section 3 of the reference cited above).

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