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| Source |
| Direct source Business opinion survey data published in the OECD's monthly Main Economic Indicators (MEI) are compiled initially by national statistical institutes, other government agencies, private research institutes, banks, and other research institutes attached to universities or other academic institutions. The OECD obtains business opinion survey data for 21 countries from the European Commission in lieu of their direct collection from national agencies. The countries involved are Members of both the European Union and the OECD, and comprise: Austria; Belgium; Czech Republic; Denmark; Estonia; Finland; France; Germany; Greece; Hungary; Ireland; Italy; Luxembourg; Netherlands; Poland; Portugal; Slovak Republic; Slovenia; Spain; Sweden; United Kingdom. Data published by the European Commission are based on surveys carried out by public and private institutes in the Member States in the framework of the Joint Harmonised EU Programme. Contact person/organisation OECD statistics contact: stat.contact@oecd.org |
| Characteristics |
| Variables collected The target variables included in the MEI are listed below. However, it should be emphasised that country coverage of these indicators varies. Confidence indicators compiled according to national definitions are available for the following countries: Switzerland, China, India, Indonesia and South Africa. For information on variables included and calculations of national confidence indicators please refer to country information. For information on confidence indicators please refer to the notes below on the Joint Harmonised EU Programme on Business Opinion Surveys. Construction target indicators Construction confidence indicator Business situation: present Order books: level Employment: future tendency Selling prices: future tendency Joint Harmonised EU Programme on Business Opinion Surveys The specific questions in the Joint Harmonised EU Programme on Business Opinion Surveys for the construction sector is outlined below. It should be emphasised that not all countries ask all questions. Furthermore, the actual wording of the questions asked in national surveys is modified to meet national circumstances and environment. Confidence indicator: The construction confidence indicator is the arithmetic average of the balances (in percentage points) of the answers to the questions on: order books - level; and employment - future tendency. Business situation: present: The question is "How has your building activity developed over the past 3 months? It has ... + increased = remain unchanged - decreased". Employment: future tendency: The question is "How do you expect your firm's total employment to change over the next 3 months? It will ... + increase = remain unchanged - decrease". Order books: level: The question is "Do you consider your current overall order books to be ...? + more than sufficient (above normal) = sufficient (normal for the season) - not sufficient (below normal)". Selling prices: The question is "How do you expect the prices you charge to change over the next 3 months? They will ... + increase = remain unchanged - decrease". |
| Scope |
| Sector coverage Sector coverage for the business tendency surveys published in the OECD's monthly Main Economic Indicators (MEI) comprises: manufacturing; construction; retail trade; and services. From May 2010, the Joint Harmonised EU Programme on Business and Consumer Surveys sectors are defined according to the NACE Rev. 2. |
| Concepts |
| Key statistical concept Business tendency surveys are carried out to obtain qualitative information for use in monitoring the current business situation and forecasting short-term developments. The information collected in business tendency surveys is described as qualitative because respondents are asked to assign qualities, rather than quantities, to the variables of interest. For example, in a business tendency survey, respondents might be asked to assign qualities to the value of their order books such as "higher than normal", "normal" or "below normal". In a conventional industry survey on the other hand, respondents may be asked to give quantitative information about their order books, such as the actual value of outstanding orders. It is generally much easier for respondents to give qualitative rather than quantitative information because the former does not require respondents to consult their accounting records. As a result, the questionnaires can be completed quickly and the results of the survey can be published much sooner than the results of traditional statistical surveys. Compared to traditional statistical surveys, which usually cover only variables on one aspect of an enterprise's activity, business tendency surveys collect information about a wide range of variables selected for their ability, when analysed together, to give an overall picture of a sector of the economy. For example, most business surveys collect information on production, order books, new orders, stocks of finished goods, exports, employment and prices. The range of information covered by business tendency surveys goes beyond variables that can easily be captured in conventional quantitative statistics. Qualitative information may be collected for variables that are difficult or impossible to measure by conventional methods. Examples include: - capacity utilisation; - production bottlenecks; - plans and expectations for the immediate future; - manager's views on the overall economic situation. Detailed guidelines for the development of questionnaires used for the collection of data from businesses using harmonised questions and recommended survey design practices are outlined in the OECD publication, Business Tendency Surveys: A Handbook, published in 2003. Joint Harmonised EU Programme on Business Opinion Surveys The presentation and methods of the monthly and quarterly business tendency surveys of EU Member States are harmonised following EU guidelines. However, collaborating institutes in each country may include additional questions in their various national surveys. Analogously, the sectoral breakdown may be more detailed than set up in the Programme, while, logically, the sample size for each survey varies across countries according to their respective statistical populations and their structures. |
| Manipulation |
| Seasonal adjustment The harmonised European series are seasonally adjusted using DAINTIES software. The direct method is used (i.e. national unadjusted series are aggregated prior to seasonal adjustment). Aggregation and consolidation Data from the Joint Harmonised EU Programme on Business Opinion Surveys are presented as balances of replies between positive (+) and negative (-) options. Data on the assessment of production, orders and stocks are presented as balances of replies, respectively: "increasing" over "decreasing", "rather large" over "rather small", "too large" over "too small". |
| Other Aspects |
| Recommended uses and limitations The basic purpose of business tendency surveys in the past was to collect information on business conditions for the benefit of respondents and as a result many such surveys are carried out by trade associations. Today, business tendency surveys have become a valuable tool for economic analysis for all types of users. The main users of survey results are still the respondents themselves. Detailed survey results broken down by sectors of activity provide information on business conditions in their own sector as seen by their competitors and about the current and future business situation in their suppliers' and users' sectors. Economic and financial analysts have also become major users of series derived from business tendency surveys. This is because the data are available rapidly and because some of the series provide advance warning of changes in aggregate economic activity. In addition, the survey information focuses on assessments and expectations of the economic situation by actors in the market. This is reflected in the extensive use of confidence indicators derived from business survey results. Such composite indicators summarise a selection of key survey variables in a single synthetic indicator. The results of business tendency surveys are still subject to sampling and non-sampling errors, and users are advised to refer to methodological information (metadata) to ascertain the relevance of the statistics to their need(s). Particular attention should be given to the wording of questionnaires used to collect information from respondents, the sample frame used for the selection of respondent enterprises, the size of the sample and the survey response rate. |