Concepts

Key statistical concept The trend restored series of the CLI is an alternative way to present the OECD CLI in which the long-term trend of the reference series has been incorporated. The OECD uses the year-on-year growth rate of the CLI as its preferred pointer to possible turning points, as year-on-year growth rate is less volatile and provides earlier and clearer signals for future turning points than the CLI itself.

Manipulation

Estimation This form of the CLI is calculated by multiplying the amplitude-adjusted CLI by the trend of the reference series to obtain the trend restored CLI. This trend-restoration enables direct comparison with the reference series. The year-on-year growth rate of a CLI for a given month t is {[X(t)/X(t-12)]-1}*100, where X(t) is a CLI for month t (f.e. January 1997) and X(t-12) is a CLI for month t-12 (f.e. January 1996).

---

Related Metadata:

All Higher Levels Main Economic Indicators