Economic Outlook No 107 - June 2020 Double Hit Scenario : Portugal

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Economic Outlook No 107 - June 2020 Double Hit Scenario : Portugal

With COVID-19 extraordinary uncertainty, this Economic Outlook presents two possible scenarios, Please check the other forecast scenario: Single-hit

Country
Frequency			Annual
Time			2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021


Variable		Unit
External sectors, trade and payments	Current account balance as a percentage of GDP	Percentage	-1.613	1.636	0.158	0.230	1.172	1.302	0.388	-0.086	-0.132	-0.106
	Exchange rate, national currency per USD	Euro	0.778	0.753	0.754	0.901	0.904	0.887	0.847	0.893	0.919	0.924
	Exchange rate, USD per national currency	US Dollar	1.286	1.328	1.329	1.109	1.106	1.129	1.181	1.119	1.088	1.082
	Exports of goods and services, volume in USD (national accounts basis)	US Dollar, 2015	68 152 111 371.919	73 060 635 900.110	76 204 822 494.357	80 976 413 160.475	84 564 194 468.688	91 672 345 104.936	95 801 044 995.651	99 368 344 131.262	80 892 260 699.893	83 631 295 946.134
	Goods and services trade, volume in USD	US Dollar, 2015	66 638 633 206.896	70 617 017 803.435	74 889 037 675.847	80 236 116 898.606	84 022 255 747.232	90 958 206 408.304	95 608 553 788.069	99 905 483 950.915	82 318 605 667.290	85 220 851 225.204
	Imports of goods and services, volume in USD (national accounts basis)	US Dollar, 2015	65 125 155 041.873	68 173 399 706.760	73 573 252 857.338	79 495 820 636.737	83 480 317 025.776	90 244 067 711.672	95 416 062 580.487	100 442 623 770.568	83 744 950 634.686	86 810 406 504.273
Government accounts	General government gross financial assets as a percentage of GDP	Percentage	48.572	44.301	44.825	41.567	43.381	38.671	36.132	37.617	39.430	35.865
	General government gross financial liabilities as a percentage of GDP	Ratio	139.365	142.783	152.752	150.173	146.030	145.121	138.399	137.569	159.797	157.826
	General government net lending as a percentage of GDP	Percentage	-6.180	-5.105	-7.356	-4.449	-1.935	-2.956	-0.442	0.190	-9.486	-7.352
	General government primary balance as a percentage of GDP	Percentage	-1.903	-0.929	-3.004	-0.172	1.949	0.652	2.793	3.056	-6.519	-4.716
	Gross public debt, Maastricht criterion as a percentage of GDP	Percentage	129.035	131.430	132.941	131.179	131.506	126.143	122.004	117.738	139.966	137.995
Expenditure and GDP	Change in inventories, contributions to changes in real GDP	Percentage, 2016	-0.155	-0.033	0.257	0.015	0.006	0.102	0.095	0.029	-0.562	0.000
	Exports of goods and services, volume (national accounts basis)	Euro, 2016	60 435 327 000.000	64 788 065 000.000	67 576 239 000.000	71 807 548 000.000	74 989 089 000.000	81 292 392 000.000	84 953 604 000.000	88 116 982 000.000	71 732 924 024.737	74 161 821 493.046
	Government final consumption expenditure, volume	Euro, 2016	33 160 330 000.000	32 466 509 000.000	32 267 756 000.000	32 536 840 000.000	32 799 599 000.000	32 863 588 000.000	33 148 205 000.000	33 499 422 000.000	34 785 344 466.367	35 150 964 258.113
	Gross capital formation, total, volume	Euro, 2016	27 519 154 000.000	26 127 851 000.000	27 190 154 000.000	28 797 123 000.000	29 526 046 000.000	33 036 545 000.000	35 093 396 000.000	37 385 940 000.000	30 947 847 689.625	31 668 892 211.482
	Gross domestic product, nominal value, market prices	Euro	168 295 569 000.000	170 492 269 000.000	173 053 691 000.000	179 713 159 000.000	186 489 811 000.000	195 947 210 000.000	204 304 761 000.000	212 319 328 000.000	191 392 447 218.466	201 006 155 981.595
	Gross domestic product, volume in USD, at constant purchasing power parities	US Dollar, 2015	302 314 420 928.991	299 525 135 809.474	301 897 945 493.030	307 308 098 166.320	313 514 142 819.933	324 507 024 854.823	333 065 071 811.239	340 273 944 125.797	301 750 168 502.882	316 107 620 210.185
	Gross domestic product, volume in USD, constant exchange rates	US Dollar, 2015	196 137 786 491.336	194 328 133 456.743	195 867 582 476.965	199 377 621 351.916	203 404 024 913.763	210 536 068 244.207	216 088 421 259.860	220 765 446 770.357	195 771 706 628.062	205 086 640 361.204
	Gross domestic product, volume, market prices	Euro, 2016	179 827 804 000.000	178 168 634 000.000	179 580 069 000.000	182 798 228 000.000	186 489 813 000.000	193 028 786 000.000	198 119 429 000.000	202 407 533 000.000	179 492 165 778.121	188 032 509 317.230
	Gross fixed capital formation, total, volume	Euro, 2016	27 318 762 000.000	26 005 957 000.000	26 601 100 000.000	28 175 661 000.000	28 893 362 000.000	32 212 916 000.000	34 088 223 000.000	36 328 517 000.000	30 992 695 494.343	31 726 359 080.335
	Imports of goods and services, volume (national accounts basis)	Euro, 2016	56 831 601 000.000	59 491 658 000.000	64 203 851 000.000	69 372 192 000.000	72 849 271 000.000	78 751 672 000.000	83 265 024 000.000	87 651 463 000.000	73 080 204 065.158	75 755 280 458.474
	Net exports, contributions to changes in real GDP	Percentage, 2016	3.487	0.929	-1.346	-0.707	-0.199	0.215	-0.467	-0.653	-0.873	-0.123
	Private final consumption expenditure, volume	Euro, 2016	115 091 066 000.000	113 890 994 000.000	116 602 440 000.000	118 978 917 000.000	122 024 350 000.000	124 587 933 000.000	128 189 248 000.000	131 056 652 000.000	114 965 287 688.680	122 755 824 583.945
Selected variables: ready-made growth rates	Exports of goods and services, volume, growth (national accounts basis)	Percentage, 2016	3.081	7.202	4.304	6.262	4.431	8.406	4.504	3.724	-18.594	3.386
	Government final consumption expenditure, volume, growth	Percentage, 2016	-3.557	-2.092	-0.612	0.834	0.808	0.195	0.866	1.060	3.839	1.051
	Gross domestic product, market prices, deflator, growth	Percentage, 2016	-0.388	2.249	0.705	2.020	1.717	1.512	1.586	1.721	1.652	0.253
	Gross domestic product, nominal value, growth	Percentage	-4.430	1.305	1.502	3.848	3.771	5.071	4.265	3.923	-9.856	5.023
	Gross domestic product, volume, growth	Percentage, 2016	-4.057	-0.923	0.792	1.792	2.019	3.506	2.637	2.164	-11.321	4.758
	Gross fixed capital formation, total, volume, growth	Percentage, 2016	-16.713	-4.806	2.288	5.919	2.547	11.489	5.822	6.572	-14.688	2.367
	Harmonised core inflation	Percentage, 2016	1.185	0.121	0.176	0.595	0.878	1.248	0.809	0.436	0.096	0.071
	Harmonised headline inflation	Percentage, 2016	2.776	0.440	-0.160	0.508	0.636	1.556	1.168	0.300	0.093	0.028
	Imports of goods and services, volume, growth (national accounts basis)	Percentage, 2016	-6.276	4.681	7.921	8.050	5.012	8.102	5.731	5.268	-16.624	3.660
	Private final consumption expenditure, volume, growth	Percentage, 2016	-5.319	-1.043	2.381	2.038	2.560	2.101	2.891	2.237	-12.278	6.776
Household sector accounts	Gross disposable income of household and non-profit institutions serving households	Euro	123 822 230 000.000	122 732 963 000.000	122 394 645 000.000	126 586 105 000.000	131 371 578 679.940	135 497 634 177.694	141 421 179 000.000	146 168 548 000.000	151 364 479 282.786	152 692 899 258.961
Prices and deflators	Consumer price index, harmonised	Index, 2016	0.986	0.990	0.989	0.994	1.000	1.016	1.027	1.030	1.031	1.032
	Core inflation index, harmonised	Index, 2016	0.983	0.984	0.985	0.991	1.000	1.012	1.021	1.025	1.026	1.027
	Exports of goods and services, deflator (national accounts basis)	Index, 2016	1.052	1.042	1.030	1.016	1.000	1.030	1.051	1.057	1.054	1.061
	Gross domestic product, market prices, deflator	Index, 2016	0.936	0.957	0.964	0.983	1.000	1.015	1.031	1.049	1.066	1.069
	Imports of goods and services, deflator (national accounts basis)	Index, 2016	1.133	1.104	1.080	1.033	1.000	1.038	1.062	1.061	1.045	1.051
	Purchasing power parity, national currency per USD	Euro	0.605	0.584	0.579	0.585	0.571	0.575	0.579	0.574	0.572	0.572
Labour markets	Labour force	Persons	5 382 600.000	5 284 600.000	5 225 575.000	5 195 175.000	5 178 275.000	5 219 425.000	5 232 600.000	5 252 550.000	5 244 286.447	5 279 356.256
	Total employment (labour force survey basis)	Persons	4 546 875.000	4 429 375.000	4 499 550.000	4 548 675.000	4 605 225.000	4 756 600.000	4 866 650.000	4 913 075.000	4 564 163.433	4 655 603.571
	Unemployment rate	Percentage	15.526	16.183	13.894	12.444	11.066	8.867	6.994	6.463	12.969	11.815
Monetary data	Long-term interest rate on government bonds	Percentage	10.547	6.293	3.754	2.423	3.172	3.053	1.839	0.758	0.473	0.483
Monetary data	Short-term interest rate	Percentage	0.573	0.221	0.210	-0.019	-0.264	-0.329	-0.322	-0.356	-0.401	-0.399

Data extracted on 21 Sep 2020 15:30 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat

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Economic Outlook No 107 - June 2020 Double Hit Scenario : Portugal

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