Economic Outlook No 107 - June 2020 Double Hit Scenario : United Kingdom

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Economic Outlook No 107 - June 2020 Double Hit Scenario : United Kingdom

With COVID-19 extraordinary uncertainty, this Economic Outlook presents two possible scenarios, Please check the other forecast scenario: Single-hit

Country
Frequency			Annual
Time			2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021


Variable		Unit
External sectors, trade and payments	Current account balance as a percentage of GDP	Percentage	-3.431	-4.760	-4.722	-4.906	-5.211	-3.490	-3.865	-3.782	-3.637	-3.660
	Exchange rate, national currency per USD	Pound Sterling	0.631	0.640	0.607	0.654	0.741	0.777	0.750	0.784	0.812	0.825
	Exchange rate, USD per national currency	US Dollar	1.585	1.564	1.647	1.528	1.355	1.289	1.335	1.277	1.233	1.213
	Exports of goods and services, volume in USD (national accounts basis)	US Dollar, 2015	763 372 452 695.173	772 346 509 230.865	780 405 713 409.380	809 861 320 313.248	832 015 701 674.272	882 778 278 621.139	893 608 429 843.022	936 775 093 228.148	778 599 065 434.269	756 121 671 605.640
	Goods and services trade, volume in USD	US Dollar, 2015	757 937 045 713.121	775 374 385 061.618	793 520 366 349.170	830 053 495 622.841	859 810 712 804.708	900 741 549 222.549	915 321 653 877.428	958 315 949 521.992	790 386 836 545.774	768 002 921 560.773
	Imports of goods and services, volume in USD (national accounts basis)	US Dollar, 2015	752 501 638 731.069	778 402 260 892.371	806 635 019 288.960	850 245 670 932.435	887 605 723 935.144	918 704 819 823.959	937 034 877 911.833	979 856 805 815.836	802 174 607 657.280	779 884 171 515.906
Government accounts	General government gross financial assets as a percentage of GDP	Percentage	38.190	35.719	35.170	34.084	34.174	34.489	34.341	34.341	34.341	34.341
	General government gross financial liabilities as a percentage of GDP	Ratio	107.540	103.305	113.325	112.920	122.550	119.934	116.618	116.057	142.170	148.631
	General government net lending as a percentage of GDP	Percentage	-8.091	-5.465	-5.541	-4.459	-3.223	-2.391	-2.151	-2.061	-14.248	-12.088
	General government primary balance as a percentage of GDP	Percentage	-5.557	-2.971	-3.182	-2.452	-1.067	0.029	0.029	-0.169	-12.254	-10.197
	Gross public debt, Maastricht criterion as a percentage of GDP	Percentage	83.209	84.158	86.193	86.923	86.789	86.245	85.724	85.412	100.723	98.311
Expenditure and GDP	Change in inventories, contributions to changes in real GDP	Percentage, 2016	0.331	0.673	0.509	0.022	-0.717	-0.569	0.292	0.183	-0.670	0.065
	Exports of goods and services, volume (national accounts basis)	Pound Sterling, 2016	520 679 000 000.000	526 800 000 000.000	532 297 000 000.000	552 388 000 000.000	567 499 000 000.000	602 123 000 000.000	609 510 000 000.000	638 953 000 000.000	531 064 726 477.800	515 733 407 015.097
	Government final consumption expenditure, volume	Pound Sterling, 2016	365 617 000 000.000	364 166 000 000.000	371 391 000 000.000	377 900 000 000.000	381 522 000 000.000	382 508 000 000.000	384 153 000 000.000	397 708 000 000.000	442 101 970 514.034	459 787 414 307.269
	Gross capital formation, total, volume	Pound Sterling, 2016	285 949 000 000.000	307 796 000 000.000	336 938 000 000.000	349 235 000 000.000	347 227 000 000.000	341 477 000 000.000	346 414 000 000.000	351 936 000 000.000	256 769 525 705.362	270 684 520 116.598
	Gross domestic product, nominal value, market prices	Pound Sterling	1 712 320 000 000.000	1 782 109 000 000.000	1 861 965 000 000.000	1 916 896 000 000.000	1 995 478 000 000.000	2 071 667 000 000.000	2 144 304 000 000.000	2 214 888 000 000.000	1 934 049 380 480.940	2 040 543 081 302.920
	Gross domestic product, volume in USD, at constant purchasing power parities	US Dollar, 2015	2 580 916 380 367.440	2 636 136 161 591.740	2 704 874 190 966.020	2 768 582 470 479.470	2 821 691 085 962.360	2 875 079 681 898.570	2 913 626 485 723.690	2 954 669 074 902.850	2 542 091 645 001.810	2 668 551 350 498.130
	Gross domestic product, volume in USD, constant exchange rates	US Dollar, 2015	2 730 464 797 456.010	2 788 884 229 369.070	2 861 605 209 746.680	2 929 004 996 830.530	2 985 190 933 779.410	3 041 673 074 347.120	3 082 453 431 161.290	3 125 874 188 921.060	2 689 390 404 657.860	2 823 177 681 448.750
	Gross domestic product, volume, market prices	Pound Sterling, 2016	1 825 204 000 000.000	1 864 255 000 000.000	1 912 866 000 000.000	1 957 920 000 000.000	1 995 478 000 000.000	2 033 234 000 000.000	2 060 494 000 000.000	2 089 519 000 000.000	1 797 747 448 975.210	1 887 178 769 597.010
	Gross fixed capital formation, total, volume	Pound Sterling, 2016	290 013 000 000.000	300 059 000 000.000	319 840 000 000.000	331 619 000 000.000	343 694 000 000.000	349 306 000 000.000	348 521 000 000.000	350 484 000 000.000	267 637 883 354.021	280 455 209 634.581
	Imports of goods and services, volume (national accounts basis)	Pound Sterling, 2016	508 522 000 000.000	526 025 000 000.000	545 104 000 000.000	574 575 000 000.000	599 822 000 000.000	620 838 000 000.000	633 225 000 000.000	662 163 000 000.000	542 089 764 113.963	527 026 438 555.499
	Net exports, contributions to changes in real GDP	Percentage, 2016	-0.406	-0.720	-0.820	-0.541	-0.519	0.682	-0.258	0.016	0.606	-0.008
	Private final consumption expenditure, volume	Pound Sterling, 2016	1 158 693 000 000.000	1 189 775 000 000.000	1 217 018 000 000.000	1 253 350 000 000.000	1 299 051 000 000.000	1 327 764 000 000.000	1 348 747 000 000.000	1 363 303 000 000.000	1 111 086 665 815.910	1 168 915 462 971.570
Selected variables: ready-made growth rates	Exports of goods and services, volume, growth (national accounts basis)	Percentage, 2016	0.559	1.176	1.043	3.774	2.736	6.101	1.227	4.831	-16.885	-2.887
	Government final consumption expenditure, volume, growth	Percentage, 2016	1.068	-0.397	1.984	1.753	0.958	0.258	0.430	3.529	11.162	4.000
	Gross domestic product, market prices, deflator, growth	Percentage, 2016	1.662	1.896	1.826	0.581	2.140	1.890	2.137	1.857	1.492	0.506
	Gross domestic product, nominal value, growth	Percentage	3.165	4.076	4.481	2.950	4.099	3.818	3.506	3.292	-12.680	5.506
	Gross domestic product, volume, growth	Percentage, 2016	1.479	2.140	2.608	2.355	1.918	1.892	1.341	1.409	-13.964	4.975
	Gross fixed capital formation, total, volume, growth	Percentage, 2016	1.970	3.464	6.592	3.683	3.641	1.633	-0.225	0.563	-23.638	4.789
	Harmonised core inflation	Percentage, 2016	2.156	1.962	1.565	1.069	1.166	2.290	2.069	1.704	0.783	0.293
	Harmonised headline inflation	Percentage, 2016	2.801	2.568	1.472	0.050	0.642	2.691	2.475	1.778	0.622	0.049
	Imports of goods and services, volume, growth (national accounts basis)	Percentage, 2016	1.826	3.442	3.627	5.406	4.394	3.504	1.995	4.570	-18.133	-2.779
	Private final consumption expenditure, volume, growth	Percentage, 2016	1.597	2.683	2.290	2.985	3.646	2.210	1.580	1.079	-18.500	5.205
Household sector accounts	Gross disposable income of household and non-profit institutions serving households	Pound Sterling	1 167 913 000 000.000	1 211 910 000 000.000	1 255 665 000 000.000	1 322 539 000 000.000	1 346 013 000 000.000	1 382 730 000 000.000	1 452 493 000 000.000	1 489 990 000 000.000	1 356 407 625 910.880	1 394 499 652 716.070
Prices and deflators	Consumer price index, harmonised	Index, 2016	0.954	0.979	0.993	0.994	1.000	1.027	1.052	1.071	1.078	1.078
	Core inflation index, harmonised	Index, 2016	0.944	0.963	0.978	0.988	1.000	1.023	1.044	1.062	1.070	1.073
	Exports of goods and services, deflator (national accounts basis)	Index, 2016	0.986	1.013	0.997	0.960	1.000	1.045	1.077	1.093	1.087	1.090
	Gross domestic product, market prices, deflator	Index, 2016	0.938	0.956	0.973	0.979	1.000	1.019	1.041	1.060	1.076	1.081
	Imports of goods and services, deflator (national accounts basis)	Index, 2016	1.049	1.058	1.021	0.969	1.000	1.054	1.084	1.094	1.096	1.107
	Purchasing power parity, national currency per USD	Pound Sterling	0.702	0.695	0.698	0.692	0.689	0.682	0.687	0.689	0.688	0.688
Labour markets	Labour force	Persons	32 268 000.000	32 517 250.000	32 779 250.000	33 065 250.000	33 376 750.000	33 533 250.000	33 819 250.000	34 104 250.000	34 438 290.653	34 660 833.448
	Total employment (labour force survey basis)	Persons	29 697 000.000	30 043 250.000	30 753 500.000	31 284 750.000	31 743 500.000	32 057 000.000	32 439 250.000	32 798 750.000	30 856 321.369	31 178 006.170
	Unemployment rate	Percentage	7.968	7.608	6.180	5.385	4.893	4.402	4.081	3.828	10.401	10.048
Monetary data	Long-term interest rate on government bonds	Percentage	1.918	2.390	2.569	1.901	1.305	1.236	1.461	0.936	0.376	0.300
Monetary data	Short-term interest rate	Percentage	0.827	0.513	0.543	0.574	0.499	0.359	0.723	0.808	0.243	0.100

Data extracted on 10 Jul 2020 22:53 UTC (GMT) from OECD.Stat

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Economic Outlook No 107 - June 2020 Double Hit Scenario : United Kingdom

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