Economic Outlook No 109 - October 2021 - Long-term baseline projections
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The OECD Long-Term Baseline Scenario is a projection of some major economic variables beyond the short-term horizon of the OECD Economic Outlook. It covers all OECD economies, non-OECD G20 economies and selected key partners. The projection horizon is currently 2060. For the historical period and the short-run projection horizon, the series are consistent with those of the OECD Economic Outlook number 109. The definitions, sources and methods are also the same, except where noted explicitly (such as coverage of the world aggregate). For more details on the methodology, please see boxes and annex in "The Long Game: Fiscal Outlooks to 2060 Underline Need for Structural Reform" and references therein.
The baseline scenario is a projection conditional on a number of assumptions, notably that countries do not carry out institutional and policy reforms. It is used as a reference point to illustrate the potential impact of structural reforms in alternative scenarios, such as those discussed in "The Long Game: Fiscal Outlooks to 2060 Underline Need for Structural Reform". The data for these alternative scenarios are not available here but can be obtained on request by writing to EcoOutlook@oecd.org.

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EcoOutlook@oecd.org

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Annual data
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18-May-21

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Data are reported over the period 1990-2060.

Economic Outlook No 109 - October 2021 - Long-term baseline projectionsAbstract

The OECD Long-Term Baseline Scenario is a projection of some major economic variables beyond the short-term horizon of the OECD Economic Outlook. It covers all OECD economies, non-OECD G20 economies and selected key partners. The projection horizon is currently 2060. For the historical period and the short-run projection horizon, the series are consistent with those of the OECD Economic Outlook number 109. The definitions, sources and methods are also the same, except where noted explicitly (such as coverage of the world aggregate). For more details on the methodology, please see boxes and annex in "The Long Game: Fiscal Outlooks to 2060 Underline Need for Structural Reform" and references therein.
The baseline scenario is a projection conditional on a number of assumptions, notably that countries do not carry out institutional and policy reforms. It is used as a reference point to illustrate the potential impact of structural reforms in alternative scenarios, such as those discussed in "The Long Game: Fiscal Outlooks to 2060 Underline Need for Structural Reform". The data for these alternative scenarios are not available here but can be obtained on request by writing to EcoOutlook@oecd.org.

Contact person/organisation

EcoOutlook@oecd.org

Source Periodicity

Annual data

Reference period

Data are reported over the period 1990-2060.

Date last updated

18-May-21