Economic Outlook No 107 - June 2020 Double Hit Scenario
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Economic Outlook No 107 (EO107) 2/2

Given the unusual level of uncertainty caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, this Economic Outlook (EO107) presents two scenarios for each country and economy – one scenario in which a second outbreak occurs in most economies towards the end of this year (double-hit scenario) and an alternative scenario where the second outbreak is avoided (single-hit scenario).
Furthermore, only a limited number of series is made available compared to past editions.

This data set presents the double-hit scenario.

The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major economic trends over the coming 2 years. It provides in-depth coverage of the main economic issues and the policy measures required to foster growth in each member country. Forthcoming developments in selected non-OECD economies are also evaluated in detail. Each edition of the Outlook provides a unique resource to keep abreast of world economic developments. The OECD Economic Outlook database is a comprehensive and consistent macroeconomic database of the OECD economies, covering expenditures, foreign trade, output, labour markets, interest and exchange rates, balance of payments, and government debt. For the non-OECD regions, foreign trade and current account series are available.

The database contains annual data (for all variables) and quarterly figures (for a subset of variables). Variables are defined in such a way that they are as homogenous as possible for the countries covered. Breaks in underlying series are corrected as far as possible. Sources for the historical data are publications of national statistical agencies and OECD data bases such as Quarterly National Accounts, Annual National Accounts, Labour Force Statistics and Main Economic Indicators. The cut-off date for information used in the compilation of the projections was the 4 June 2020.

Concerning the aggregation of world trade, a new composition has been introduced, since projections are now made for the major non-OECD economies. Thus, besides OECD and the OECD euro area, the following new regions are available: Dynamic Asian Economies (Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam); Oil Producers (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Brunei, Timor-Leste, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Ecuador, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Algeria, Angola, Chad, Rep. of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, Sudan); with the remaining countries in a residual 'Rest of the World' group.

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Economic Outlook Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections in Annex 1.1 of the publication, Economic Outlook Sources and Methods, Database inventory , OECD Glossary

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Most volume series (or constant prices series) are chained and presented using countries specific reference years (or base years). See the database inventory documentation and series metadata to see the reference years used. Aggregates and some indicators are expressed using a standard reference year. The latter has changed in the EO105.

Standard reference year: 2015

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4 June 2020

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Annual and quarterly data

Click to expand Reference period
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Data are reported over the period 1960-2021. Last historical points (at 4 june 2020) are available in an excel file. Data after these historical points should be considered as OECD forecasts.

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See database inventory / documentation

Economic Outlook No 107 - June 2020 Double Hit ScenarioAbstract

Economic Outlook No 107 (EO107) 2/2

Given the unusual level of uncertainty caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, this Economic Outlook (EO107) presents two scenarios for each country and economy – one scenario in which a second outbreak occurs in most economies towards the end of this year (double-hit scenario) and an alternative scenario where the second outbreak is avoided (single-hit scenario).
Furthermore, only a limited number of series is made available compared to past editions.

This data set presents the double-hit scenario.

The OECD Economic Outlook analyses the major economic trends over the coming 2 years. It provides in-depth coverage of the main economic issues and the policy measures required to foster growth in each member country. Forthcoming developments in selected non-OECD economies are also evaluated in detail. Each edition of the Outlook provides a unique resource to keep abreast of world economic developments. The OECD Economic Outlook database is a comprehensive and consistent macroeconomic database of the OECD economies, covering expenditures, foreign trade, output, labour markets, interest and exchange rates, balance of payments, and government debt. For the non-OECD regions, foreign trade and current account series are available.

The database contains annual data (for all variables) and quarterly figures (for a subset of variables). Variables are defined in such a way that they are as homogenous as possible for the countries covered. Breaks in underlying series are corrected as far as possible. Sources for the historical data are publications of national statistical agencies and OECD data bases such as Quarterly National Accounts, Annual National Accounts, Labour Force Statistics and Main Economic Indicators. The cut-off date for information used in the compilation of the projections was the 4 June 2020.

Concerning the aggregation of world trade, a new composition has been introduced, since projections are now made for the major non-OECD economies. Thus, besides OECD and the OECD euro area, the following new regions are available: Dynamic Asian Economies (Chinese Taipei, Hong Kong, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam); Oil Producers (Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Brunei, Timor-Leste, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Yemen, Ecuador, Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela, Algeria, Angola, Chad, Rep. of Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Nigeria, Sudan); with the remaining countries in a residual 'Rest of the World' group.

Contact person/organisation

EcoOutlook@oecd.orgmailto:EcoOutlook@oecd.orgSource metadata

Economic Outlook Policy and other assumptions underlying the projections in Annex 1.1 of the publication, Economic Outlook Sources and Methods, Database inventory , OECD Glossary

Database documentation (includes inventory of available series)http://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/Database_Inventory.pdfEconomic Outlook Sources and Methodshttp://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/Economic_Outlook_Statistical_Sources.xlsOECD Glossaryhttp://stats.oecd.org/glossary/
Variables collected

See database inventory / documentation

Database inventory / documentationhttp://www.oecd.org/eco/outlook/Database_Inventory.pdf
Periodicity

Annual and quarterly data

Reference period

Data are reported over the period 1960-2021. Last historical points (at 4 june 2020) are available in an excel file. Data after these historical points should be considered as OECD forecasts.

Last historical points (Export > Related files)http://stats.oecd.org/DownloadFiles.aspx?HideTopMenu=no&amp;DatasetCode=EO107_INTERNET_1
Base period

Most volume series (or constant prices series) are chained and presented using countries specific reference years (or base years). See the database inventory documentation and series metadata to see the reference years used. Aggregates and some indicators are expressed using a standard reference year. The latter has changed in the EO105.

Standard reference year: 2015

Date last updated

4 June 2020

Contact person

Economic Outlook generic account

EcoOutlook@oecd.orgmailto:EcoOutlook@oecd.org